I’ve previously spoken to Rod about the pacing of patches, and while major patches are being saved for seasonal transitions every three months, there is going to be “live reaction” patches that occur during the season. The speed at Diablo IV Gold which these recent ones were implemented, including the essentially instant Necro buff, should give a strong indication that we can expect more insta-changes like that if something is clear outlier, one way or another.
We are now two weeks away from the launch of Diablo 4, hopefully enough time to get a bunch of Tears of the Kingdom in, and then that’s a few weeks before Final Fantasy XVI. But Diablo 4 is meant to be a live game with yearly seasons in addition to upcoming full expansions, so it’s going to be far from a one-and-done launch. We’ll see what other changes might slip in before release here based on Server Slam feedback.
I am very curious about a very specific race going on this year. While there are many big releases happening in 2023 after a series of 2021-2022 delays, there are caveats to most of them.
Games like Redfall and Starfield are Xbox exclusives and will not “sell” in the traditional sense due to launching on Game Pass. Tears of the Kingdom will be massive, but is only on Switch. Same for Final Fantasy XVI and potentially Spider-Man 2, only on PlayStation.
However, there are two, possibly three exceptions to this. We don’t know exactly what Call of Duty is doing this year. Some sort of $70 offering, possibly a fully new game, but it seems like it may be something tied directly to MW2. Therefore I wonder if it will sell as monstrously as a normal installment would.
That leaves two games I’m watching, Diablo 4 and Hogwarts Legacy, and I am wondering which will outsell the other, as both are multiplatform and not exclusive to any one system. And bigger than other third party games are likely to be, such as Jedi Survivor (even if that’s great).
Hogwarts Legacy sold 12 million copies in its first two weeks, blockbuster numbers at a pace that has rarely been matched in the industry, and almost never for a brand new IP (Cyberpunk 2077 might be the closest comparison). Those are the last numbers we have from the series right now, and the game will continue to release on more platforms like last-gen consoles and the Switch, still to come.
Diablo 4? It’s not out yet, clearly, but we can look at Diablo 3 as reference.
Diablo 3 became the fastest-selling PC game ever at launch, racking up 3.5 million sales in 24 hours. It hit 6.3 million sales its first week. By the end of 2012 it sold more than 12 million copies, which would have been about six and a half months after launch. Eventually, Blizzard would reveal it had sold 30 million copies by Diablo 4 Gold August 2015, though it seems likely that also included sales of the Reaper of Souls expansion as well.
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